Geographic disparities in access to liver transplant for advanced cirrhosis: Time to ring the alarm!

Decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular cancer are major risk factors for mortality worldwide. Liver transplantation (LT), both live-donor LT or deceased-donor LT, are lifesaving, but there are several barriers toward equitable access. These barriers are exacerbated in the setting of critical illness or acute-on-chronic liver failure. Rates of LT vary widely worldwide but are lowest in lower-income countries owing to lack of resources, infrastructure, late disease presentation, and limited donor awareness. A recent experience by the Chronic Liver Disease Evolution and Registry for Events and Decompensation consortium defined these barriers toward LT as critical in determining overall survival in hospitalized cirrhosis patients. A major focus should be on appropriate, affordable, and early cirrhosis and hepatocellular cancer care to prevent the need for LT. Live-donor LT is predominant across Asian countries, whereas deceased-donor LT is more common in Western countries; both approaches have unique challenges that add to the access disparities. There are many challenges toward equitable access but uniform definitions of acute-on-chronic liver failure, improving transplant expertise, enhancing availability of resources and encouraging knowledge between centers, and preventing disease progression are critical to reduce LT disparities.

A transient positive association between direct-acting antiviral therapy for hepatitis C infection and drug-related hospitalization among people who inject drugs: Self-controlled case-series analysis of national data.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment has an established positive effect on liver outcomes in people with hepatitis C infection; however, there is insufficient evidence regarding its effects on the 'extra-hepatic' outcomes of drug-related hospitalization and mortality (DRM) among people who inject drugs (PWID). We investigated associations between these outcomes and DAA treatment by comparing post-treatment to baseline periods using a within-subjects design to minimize selection bias concerns with cohort or case-control designs. DESIGN: This was a self-controlled case-series study. SETTING: Scotland, 1 January 2015-30 November 2020. PARTICIPANTS: The study population of non-cirrhotic, DAA-treated PWID was identified using a data set linking Scotland's hepatitis C diagnosis, HCV clinical databases, national inpatient/day-case hospital records and the national deaths register. Three principal outcomes (drug overdose admission, non-viral injecting related admission and drug-related mortality) were defined using ICD codes. MEASUREMENTS: Self-controlled case-series methodology was used to estimate the relative incidence (RI) of each outcome associated with time on treatment and up to six 90-day exposure risk periods thereafter. FINDINGS: A total of 6050 PWID were treated with DAAs in the sampling time-frame. Compared with the baseline period, there was a significantly lowered risk of a drug overdose hospital admission in the second to fifth exposure risk periods only [relative incidence (RI) = 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.80-0.99; 0.89, 95% CI = 0.80-0.99; 0.86, 95% CI = 0.77-0.96; 0.88, 95% CI = 0.78-0.99, respectively]. For non-viral injecting-related admission, there was a reduced risk in the first, third and fourth exposure risk periods (RI = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.64-0.90; 0.75, 95% CI = 0.62-0.90; 0.79, 95% CI = 0.66-0.96, respectively). There was no evidence for reduced DRM risk in any period following treatment end. CONCLUSIONS: Among people who inject drugs in Scotland, direct-acting antiviral treatment appears to be associated with a small, non-durable reduction in the risk of drug-related hospital admission, but not drug-related mortality. Direct-acting antiviral therapy, despite high effectiveness against liver disease, does not appear to offer a panacea for reducing other drug-related health harms.

Pre-emptive TIPS in high-risk acute variceal bleeding. An updated and revised individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: A previous individual patient data meta-analysis (IPD-MA) showed that compared with drugs+endoscopy, the placement of transjugular portosystemic shunt within 72 hours of admission (pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt: p-TIPS) increases the survival of high-risk patients (Child-Pugh B+ active bleeding and Child-Pugh C<14 points) with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding. However, the previous IPD-MA was not a two-stage meta-analysis, did not consider the potential risk of selection bias of observational studies, and did not include the most recent randomized clinical trial. We performed an updated and revised IPD-MA to reassess the efficacy of p-TIPS, addressing all previous issues. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We included all studies from the previous IPD-MA and searched for other possible eligible publications until September 2022. We performed a two-stage IPD-MA of data from 8 studies (4 randomized clinical trials and 4 observational). In addition, we performed a sensitivity analysis excluding those patients dying up to the first 72 hours after admission in the Drugs+Endoscopy arms of the 4 observational studies. The primary end point was the effects of p-TIPS versus Drugs+Endoscopy on 1-year survival.We identified 1389 patients (342 p-TIPS and 1047 Drugs+Endoscopy). The two-stage IPD-MA showed that p-TIPS significantly reduced the mortality in the overall population (HR=0·43, 95% CI: 0.32-0.60, p <0.001. This effect was observed in both subgroups of patients with Child-Pugh. The sensitivity analysis confirmed the survival benefit of p-TIPS. CONCLUSIONS: The updated two-stage IPD-MA confirms the significant survival advantage of p-TIPS in high-risk patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding. As a result, we recommend p-TIPS as the preferred first-choice treatment for these patients.

Improving primary prophylaxis of variceal bleeding by adapting therapy to the clinical stage of cirrhosis. A competing-risk meta-analysis of individual participant data.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-selective ß-blockers (NSBBs) and endoscopic variceal-ligation (EVL) have similar efficacy preventing first variceal bleeding. Compensated and decompensated cirrhosis are markedly different stages, which may impact treatment outcomes. We aimed to assess the efficacy of NSBBs vs EVL on survival in patients with high-risk varices without previous bleeding, stratifying risk according to compensated/decompensated stage of cirrhosis. METHODS: By systematic review, we identified RCTs comparing NSBBs vs EVL, in monotherapy or combined, for primary bleeding prevention. We performed a competing-risk, time-to-event meta-analysis, using individual patient data (IPD) obtained from principal investigators of RCTs. Analyses were stratified according to previous decompensation of cirrhosis. RESULTS: Of 25 RCTs eligible, 14 failed to provide IPD and 11 were included, comprising 1400 patients (656 compensated, 744 decompensated), treated with NSBBs (N = 625), EVL (N = 546) or NSBB+EVL (N = 229). Baseline characteristics were similar between groups. Overall, mortality risk was similar with EVL vs. NSBBs (subdistribution hazard-ratio (sHR) = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.75-1.49) and with EVL + NSBBs vs either monotherapy, with low heterogeneity (I2 = 28.7%). In compensated patients, mortality risk was higher with EVL vs NSBBs (sHR = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.11-2.77) and not significantly lower with NSBBs+EVL vs NSBBs, without heterogeneity (I2 = 0%). In decompensated patients, mortality risk was similar with EVL vs. NSBBs and with NSBBs+EVL vs. either monotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with compensated cirrhosis and high-risk varices on primary prophylaxis, NSBBs significantly improved survival vs EVL, with no additional benefit noted adding EVL to NSBBs. In decompensated patients, survival was similar with both therapies. The study suggests that NSBBs are preferable when advising preventive therapy in compensated patients.

The evolution of ScotRIGHT: The first pan-Scotland physician trainee research network.

Scotland has a distinguished track record in foundational clinical research. From the completion of the first clinical trial undertaken in scurvy to cloning the world's first whole mammal, Scottish basic and clinical research is world leading. More recently, challenges in access to research skills, funding and programmes by clinical trainees led to the development of alternatives to these typical avenues of accessing research opportunities. Trainee networks evolved to meet the needs of trainees looking to access projects and collaboratives beyond audit and quality improvement commonly performed during structured training. These networks have enjoyed enormous success and have succeeded in progressing projects which have impactful outputs for patients, and improving clinical services. Here, we describe the foundation of the first pan-Scotland physician trainee research network; Scottish Trainees Research In Gastroterology and Hepatology (ScotRIGHT). We outline the foundational efforts, requisites and foundations required to develop a research network.

Mortality rates among patients successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free antivirals: population based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify mortality rates for patients successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free, direct acting antivirals and compare these rates with those of the general population. DESIGN: Population based cohort study. SETTING: British Columbia, Scotland, and England (England cohort consists of patients with cirrhosis only). PARTICIPANTS: 21 790 people who were successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free antivirals (2014-19). Participants were divided into three liver disease severity groups: people without cirrhosis (pre-cirrhosis), those with compensated cirrhosis, and those with end stage liver disease. Follow-up started 12 weeks after antiviral treatment completion and ended on date of death or 31 December 2019. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Crude and age-sex standardised mortality rates, and standardised mortality ratio comparing the number of deaths with that of the general population, adjusting for age, sex, and year. Poisson regression was used to identify factors associated with all cause mortality rates. RESULTS: 1572 (7%) participants died during follow-up. The leading causes of death were drug related mortality (n=383, 24%), liver failure (n=286, 18%), and liver cancer (n=250, 16%). Crude all cause mortality rates (deaths per 1000 person years) were 31.4 (95% confidence interval 29.3 to 33.7), 22.7 (20.7 to 25.0), and 39.6 (35.4 to 44.3) for cohorts from British Columbia, Scotland, and England, respectively. All cause mortality was considerably higher than the rate for the general population across all disease severity groups and settings; for example, all cause mortality was three times higher among people without cirrhosis in British Columbia (standardised mortality ratio 2.96, 95% confidence interval 2.71 to 3.23; P<0.001) and more than 10 times higher for patients with end stage liver disease in British Columbia (13.61, 11.94 to 15.49; P<0.001). In regression analyses, older age, recent substance misuse, alcohol misuse, and comorbidities were associated with higher mortality rates. CONCLUSION: Mortality rates among people successfully treated for hepatitis C in the era of interferon-free, direct acting antivirals are high compared with the general population. Drug and liver related causes of death were the main drivers of excess mortality. These findings highlight the need for continued support and follow-up after successful treatment for hepatitis C to maximise the impact of direct acting antivirals.

Metabolism of Acetaminophen by Enteric Epithelial Cells Mitigates Hepatocellular Toxicity In Vitro.

The gut-liver axis is defined by dietary and environmental communication between the gut, microbiome and the liver with its redox and immune systems, the overactivation of which can lead to hepatic injury. We used media preconditioning to mimic some aspects of the enterohepatic circulation by treating the human Caco-2 intestinal epithelial cell line with 5, 10 and 20 mM paracetamol (N-acetyl-para-aminophenol; APAP) for 24 h, after which cell culture supernatants were transferred to differentiated human hepatic HepaRG cells for a further 24 h. Cell viability was assessed by mitochondrial function and ATP production, while membrane integrity was monitored by cellular-based impedance. Metabolism by Caco-2 cells was determined by liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry. Caco-2 cell viability was not affected by APAP, while cell membrane integrity and tight junctions were maintained and became tighter with increasing APAP concentrations, suggesting a reduction in the permeability of the intestinal epithelium. During 24 h incubation, Caco-2 cells metabolised 64-68% of APAP, leaving 32-36% of intact starting compound to be transferred to HepaRG cells. When cultured with Caco-2-preconditioned medium, HepaRG cells also showed no loss of cell viability or membrane integrity, completely in contrast to direct treatment with APAP, which resulted in a rapid loss of cell viability and membrane integrity and, ultimately, cell death. Thus, the pre-metabolism of APAP could mitigate previously observed hepatotoxicity to hepatic tight junctions caused by direct exposure to APAP. These observations could have important implications for the direct exposure of hepatic parenchyma to APAP, administered via the intravenous route.

Global disparities in mortality and liver transplantation in hospitalised patients with cirrhosis: a prospective cohort study for the CLEARED Consortium.

BACKGROUND: Cirrhosis, the end result of liver injury, has high mortality globally. The effect of country-level income on mortality from cirrhosis is unclear. We aimed to assess predictors of death in inpatients with cirrhosis using a global consortium focusing on cirrhosis-related and access-related variables. METHODS: In this prospective observational cohort study, the CLEARED Consortium followed up inpatients with cirrhosis at 90 tertiary care hospitals in 25 countries across six continents. Consecutive patients older than 18 years who were admitted non-electively, without COVID-19 or advanced hepatocellular carcinoma, were enrolled. We ensured equitable participation by limiting enrolment to a maximum of 50 patients per site. Data were collected from patients and their medical records, and included demographic characteristics; country; disease severity (MELD-Na score); cirrhosis cause; medications used; reasons for admission; transplantation listing; cirrhosis-related history in the past 6 months; and clinical course and management while hospitalised and for 30 days post discharge. Primary outcomes were death and receipt of liver transplant during index hospitalisation or within 30 days post discharge. Sites were surveyed regarding availability of and access to diagnostic and treatment services. Outcomes were compared by country income level of participating sites, defined according to World Bank income classifications (high-income countries [HICs], upper-middle-income countries [UMICs], and low-income or lower-middle-income countries [LICs or LMICs]). Multivariable models controlling for demographic variables, disease cause, and disease severity were used to analyse the odds of each outcome associated with variables of interest. FINDINGS: Patients were recruited between Nov 5, 2021, and Aug 31, 2022. Complete inpatient data were obtained for 3884 patients (mean age 55·9 years [SD 13·3]; 2493 (64·2%) men and 1391 (35·8%) women; 1413 [36·4%] from HICs, 1757 [45·2%] from UMICs, and 714 [18·4%] from LICs or LMICs), with 410 lost to follow-up within 30 days after hospital discharge. The number of patients who died while hospitalised was 110 (7·8%) of 1413 in HICs, 182 (10·4%) of 1757 in UMICs, and 158 (22·1%) of 714 in LICs and LMICs (p<0·0001), and within 30 days post discharge these values were 179 (14·4%) of 1244 in HICs, 267 (17·2%) of 1556 in UMICs, and 204 (30·3%) of 674 in LICs and LMICs (p<0·0001). Compared with patients from HICs, increased risk of death during hospitalisation was found for patients from UMICs (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2·14 [95% CI 1·61-2·84]) and from LICs or LMICs (2·54 [1·82-3·54]), in addition to increased risk of death within 30 days post discharge (1·95 [1·44-2·65] in UMICs and 1·84 [1·24-2·72] in LICs or LMICs). Receipt of a liver transplant was recorded in 59 (4·2%) of 1413 patients from HICs, 28 (1·6%) of 1757 from UMICs (aOR 0·41 [95% CI 0·24-0·69] vs HICs), and 14 (2·0%) of 714 from LICs and LMICs (0·21 [0·10-0·41] vs HICs) during index hospitalisation (p<0·0001), and in 105 (9·2%) of 1137 patients from HICs, 55 (4·0%) of 1372 from UMICs (0·58 [0·39-0·85] vs HICs), and 16 (3·1%) of 509 from LICs or LMICs (0·21 [0·11-0·40] vs HICs) by 30 days post discharge (p<0·0001). Site survey results showed that access to important medications (rifaximin, albumin, and terlipressin) and interventions (emergency endoscopy, liver transplantation, intensive care, and palliative care) varied geographically. INTERPRETATION: Inpatients with cirrhosis in LICs, LMICs, or UMICs have significantly higher mortality than inpatients in HICs independent of medical risk factors, and this might be due to disparities in access to essential diagnostic and treatment services. These results should encourage researchers and policy makers to consider access to services and medications when evaluating cirrhosis-related outcomes. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health and US Department of Veterans Affairs.

Quantifying the benefit of nonselective beta-blockers in the prevention of hepatic decompensation: A Bayesian reanalysis of the PREDESCI trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Beta-blockers have been studied for the prevention of variceal bleeding and, more recently, for the prevention of all-cause decompensation. Some uncertainties regarding the benefit of beta-blockers for the prevention of decompensation remain. Bayesian analyses enhance the interpretation of trials. The purpose of this study was to provide clinically meaningful estimates of both the probability and magnitude of the benefit of beta-blocker treatment across a range of patient types. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We undertook a Bayesian reanalysis of PREDESCI incorporating 3 priors (moderate neutral, moderate optimistic, and weak pessimistic). The probability of clinical benefit was assessed considering the prevention of all-cause decompensation. Microsimulation analyses were done to determine the magnitude of the benefit. In the Bayesian analysis, the probability that beta-blockers reduce all-cause decompensation was >0.93 for all priors. The Bayesian posterior hazard ratios (HR) for decompensation ranged from 0.50 (optimistic prior, 95% credible interval 0.27-0.93) to 0.70 (neutral prior, 95% credible interval 0.44-1.12). Exploring the benefit of treatment using microsimulation highlights substantial treatment benefits. For the neutral prior derived posterior HR and a 5% annual incidence of decompensation, at 10 years, an average of 497 decompensation-free years per 1000 patients were gained with treatment. In contrast, at 10 years 1639 years per 1000 patients were gained from the optimistic prior derived posterior HR and a 10% incidence of decompensation. CONCLUSIONS: Beta-blocker treatment is associated with a high probability of clinical benefit. This likely translates to a substantial gain in decompensation-free life years at the population level.

Review article: controversies surrounding the use of carvedilol and other beta blockers in the management of portal hypertension and cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Advanced chronic liver disease is an increasing cause of premature morbidity and mortality in the UK. Portal hypertension is the primary driver of decompensation, including the development of ascites, hepatic encephalopathy and variceal haemorrhage. Non-selective beta blockers (NSBB) reduce portal pressure and are well established in the prevention of variceal haemorrhage. Carvedilol, a newer NSBB, is more effective at reducing portal pressure due to additional α-adrenergic blockade and has additional anti-oxidant, anti-inflammatory and anti-fibrotic effects. AIM: To summarise the available evidence on the use of beta blockers, specifically carvedilol, in cirrhosis, focussing on when and why to start METHODS: We performed a comprehensive literature search of PubMed for relevant publications. RESULTS: International guidelines advise the use of NSBB in primary prophylaxis against variceal haemorrhage in those with high-risk varices, with substantial evidence of efficacy comparable with endoscopic band ligation (EBL). NSBB are also well established in secondary prophylaxis, in combination with EBL. More controversial is their use in patients without large varices, but with clinically significant portal hypertension. However, there is gathering evidence that NSBB, particularly carvedilol, reduce the risk of decompensation and improve survival. While caution is advised in patients with advanced cirrhosis and refractory ascites, recent evidence suggests that NSBB can continue to be used safely, and that premature discontinuation may be detrimental. CONCLUSIONS: With increasing evidence of benefit independent of variceal bleeding, namely retardation of decompensation and improvement in survival, it is time to consider whether carvedilol should be offered to all patients with advanced chronic liver disease.

Comparing Predicted Probability of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Cirrhosis With the General Population: An Opportunity to Improve Risk Communication?

INTRODUCTION: Risk scores estimating a patient's probability of a hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) diagnosis are abundant but are difficult to interpret in isolation. We compared the predicted HCC probability for individuals with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C with the general population (GP). METHODS: All patients with cirrhosis achieving sustained viral response (SVR) in Scotland by April 2018 were included (N = 1,803). The predicted 3-year probability of HCC at time of SVR achievement was determined using the aMAP prognostic model. GP data on the total number of incident HCCs in Scotland, stratified by demographics, were obtained from Public Health Scotland. Predicted HCC risk of cirrhosis SVR patients was compared with GP incidence using 2 metrics: (i) incidence ratio: i.e., 3-year predicted probability for a given patient divided by the 3-year probability in GP for the equivalent demographic group and (ii) absolute risk difference: the 3-year predicted probability minus the 3-year probability in the GP. RESULTS: The mean predicted 3-year HCC probability among cirrhosis SVR patients was 3.64% (range: 0.012%-36.12%). Conversely, the 3-year HCC probability in the GP was much lower, ranging from <0.0001% to 0.25% depending on demographics. The mean incidence ratio was 410, ranging from 5 to >10,000. The mean absolute risk difference was 3.61%, ranging from 0.012% to 35.9%. An online HCC-GP comparison calculator for use by patients/clinicians is available at https://thrive-svr.shinyapps.io/RShiny/ . DISCUSSION: Comparing a patient's predicted HCC probability with the GP is feasible and may help clinicians communicate risk information and encourage screening uptake.

Carvedilol reduces the risk of decompensation and mortality in patients with compensated cirrhosis in a competing-risk meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Whether non-selective ß-blockers can prevent decompensation of cirrhosis warrants clarification. Carvedilol might be particularly effective since its intrinsic vasodilatory activity may ameliorate hepatic vascular resistance, a major mechanism of portal hypertension in early cirrhosis. We assessed whether carvedilol may prevent decompensation and improve survival in patients with compensated cirrhosis and clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH). METHODS: By systematic review we identified randomized-controlled trials (RCTs) comparing carvedilol vs. control therapy (no-active treatment or endoscopic variceal ligation [EVL]) in patients with cirrhosis and CSPH without previous bleeding. We performed a competing-risk time-to-event meta-analysis using individual patient data (IPD) obtained from principal investigators of RCTs. Only compensated patients were included. Primary outcomes were prevention of decompensation (liver transplantation and death were competing events) and death (liver transplantation was a competing event). Models were adjusted using propensity scores for baseline covariates with the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) approach. RESULTS: Among 125 full-text studies evaluated, 4 RCTs were eligible. The 4 provided IPD and were included, comprising 352 patients with compensated cirrhosis, 181 treated with carvedilol and 171 controls (79 received EVL and 92 placebo). Baseline characteristics were similar between groups. Standardized differences were <10% by IPTW. The risk of developing decompensation of cirrhosis was lower with carvedilol than in controls (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 0.506; 95% CI 0.289-0.887; p = 0.017; I2 = 0.0%, Q-statistic-p = 0.880), mainly due to a reduced risk of ascites (SHR 0.491; 95% CI 0.247-0.974; p = 0.042; I2 = 0.0%, Q-statistic-p = 0.384). The risk of death was also lower with carvedilol (SHR 0.417; 95% CI 0.194-0.896; p = 0.025; I2 = 0.0%, Q-statistic-p = 0.989). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term carvedilol therapy reduced decompensation of cirrhosis and significantly improved survival in compensated patients with CSPH. This suggests that screening patients with compensated cirrhosis for CSPH to enable the prompt initiation of carvedilol could improve outcomes. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42019144786. LAY SUMMARY: The transition from compensated cirrhosis to decompensated cirrhosis is associated with markedly reduced life expectancy. Therefore, preventing decompensation in patients with compensated cirrhosis would be associated with greatly improved patient outcomes. There has been controversy regarding the use of non-selective ß-blockers (portal pressure-lowering medications) in patients with cirrhosis and elevated portal blood pressure (portal hypertension). Herein, using a competing-risk meta-analysis to optimize sample size and properly investigate cirrhosis as a multistate disease and outcomes as time-dependent events, we show that carvedilol (a non-selective ß-blocker) is associated with a reduced risk of decompensating events and improved survival in patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension.

Carvedilol versus endoscopic band ligation for secondary prophylaxis of variceal bleeding-long-term follow-up of a randomised control trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Carvedilol reduces rates of variceal bleeding and rebleeding by lowering portal pressure. However, an associated pleiotropic survival benefit has been proposed. We aimed to assess long-term survival in a cohort of patients previously randomised to receive either carvedilol or endoscopic band ligation (EBL) following oesophageal variceal bleeding (OVB). METHODS: The index study randomised 64 cirrhotic patients with OVB between 2006 and 2011 to receive either carvedilol or EBL. Follow-up was undertaken to April 2020 by review of electronic patient records. The primary outcome was survival. Other outcomes including variceal rebleeding and liver decompensation events were compared. RESULTS: 26 out of 33 participants received carvedilol in the follow-up period and 28 out of 31 attended regular EBL sessions. The median number of follow-up days for all patients recruited was 1459 (SE = 281.74). On the intention to treat analysis, there was a trend towards improved survival in the carvedilol group (p = 0.09). On per-protocol analysis, carvedilol use was associated with improved long-term survival (p = 0.005, HR 3.083, 95% CI 1.397-6.809), fewer liver-related deaths (0% vs 22.57%, p = 0.013, OR ∞, 95%CI 1.565-∞) and fewer admissions with decompensated liver disease (12% vs 64.29%, p = 0.0002, OR 13.2, 95% CI 3.026-47.23) compared to the EBL group. There was no statistically significant difference in variceal rebleeding rates. CONCLUSION: Following OVB in cirrhotic patients, carvedilol use is associated with survival benefit, fewer liver-related deaths and fewer hospital admissions with decompensated liver disease. Further studies are needed to validate this finding.

Declining incidence of hepatitis C related hepatocellular carcinoma in the era of interferon-free therapies: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The impact of interferon (IFN)-free therapies on the epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is not well understood at a population level. Our goal was to bridge this evidence gap. METHODS: This study included all patients in Scotland with chronic HCV and a diagnosis of cirrhosis during 1999-2019. Incident cases of HCC, episodes of curative HCC therapy, and HCC-related deaths were identified through linkage to nationwide registries. Three time periods were examined: 1999-2010 (pegylated interferon-ribavirin [PIR]); 2011-2013 (First-generation DAA); and 2014-2019 (IFN-free era). We used regression modelling to determine time trends for (i) number diagnosed and living with HCV cirrhosis, (ii) HCC cumulative incidence, (iii) HCC curative treatment uptake and (iv) post-HCC mortality. RESULTS: 3347 cirrhosis patients were identified of which 381 (11.4%) developed HCC. After HCC diagnosis, 140 (36.7%) received curative HCC treatment and there were 202 deaths from HCC. The average annual number of patients diagnosed and living with HCV cirrhosis was approximately seven times higher in the IFN-free versus the PIR era, whereas the number of incident HCCs was four times higher. However, the cumulative incidence of HCC was significantly lower in the IFN-free versus PIR era (sdHR: 0.65; 95%CI:0.47-0.88; P = .006). Among HCC patients, diagnosis in the IFN-free era was not associated with improved uptake of curative treatment (aOR:1.18; 95%CI:0.69-2.01; P = .54), or reduced post-HCC mortality (sdHR: 0.74; 95%CI:0.53-1.05; P = .09). CONCLUSIONS: The cumulative incidence of HCC is declining in HCV cirrhosis patients, but uptake of curative HCC therapy and post-HCC survival remains suboptimal.

Characterizing the risk interplay between alcohol intake and body mass index on cirrhosis morbidity.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: It is thought that alcohol intake and body mass index (BMI) interact supra-additively to modulate the risk of cirrhosis, but evidence for this phenomenon is limited. We investigated the interrelationship between alcohol and BMI on the incidence of cirrhosis morbidity for participants of the United Kingdom Biobank (UKB) study. APPROACH AND RESULTS: The primary outcome was the cumulative incidence of cirrhosis morbidity, defined as a first-time hospital admission for cirrhosis (with noncirrhosis mortality incorporated as a competing risk). All UKB participants without a previous hospital admission for cirrhosis were included in the analysis. We determined the ratio of the 10-year cumulative incidence in harmful drinkers versus safe drinkers according to BMI. We also calculated the excess cumulative incidence at 10 years for individuals with obesity and/or harmful alcohol compared to safe drinkers with a healthy BMI of 20-25.0 kg/m2 . A total of 489,285 UK Biobank participants were included, with mean of 10.7 person-years' follow-up. A total of 2070 participants developed the primary outcome, equating to a crude cumulative incidence of 0.36% at 10 years (95% CI:0.34-0.38). The 10-year cumulative incidence was 8.6 times higher for harmful (1.38%) versus safe drinkers (0.16%) if BMI was healthy. Conversely, it was only 3.6 times higher for obese participants (1.99% vs. 0.56%). Excess cumulative incidence was 1.22% (95% CI:0.89-1.55) for harmful drinkers with a healthy BMI, 0.40% (95% CI:0.34-0.46) for obese individuals drinking at safe levels, and 1.83% (95% CI:1.46-2.20) for obese harmful drinkers (all compared to safe drinkers with a healthy BMI). CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol intake and obesity are independent risk factors for cirrhosis morbidity, but they do not interact supra-additively to modulate the cumulative incidence of this outcome.

Population-level estimates of hepatitis C reinfection post scale-up of direct-acting antivirals among people who inject drugs.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Scale-up of highly effective direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for HCV among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Scotland has led to a reduction in the prevalence of viraemia in this population. However, the extent of reinfection among those treated with DAAs remains uncertain. We estimated HCV reinfection rates among PWID in Scotland by treatment setting, pre- and post-introduction of DAAs, and the potential number of undiagnosed reinfections resulting from incomplete follow-up testing. METHODS: Through linkage of national clinical and laboratory HCV data, a retrospective cohort of PWID who commenced treatment between 2000-2018 and achieved a sustained virological response (SVR) were followed up for reinfection to December 2019. Reinfection was defined as a positive HCV antigen or RNA test. RESULTS: Of 5,686 SVRs among 5,592 PWID, 4,126 (73%) had an HCV RNA or antigen test post-SVR. Of those retested, we identified 361 reinfections (3.9/100 person-years [PY]). The reinfection rate increased from 1.5/100 PY among PWID treated in 2000-2009 to 8.8/100 PY in 2017-2018. The highest reinfection rates were observed among those treated in prison (14.3/100 PY) and community settings (9.5/100 PY). Among those treated in the DAA era (2015-2018), 68% were tested within the first year post-SVR but only 30% in the second year; while 169 reinfections were diagnosed in follow-up, an estimated 200 reinfections (54% of the estimated total) had gone undetected. CONCLUSIONS: HCV reinfection rates among PWID in Scotland have risen alongside the scale-up of DAAs and broadened access to treatment for those at highest risk, through delivery in community drug services. Promotion of HCV testing post-SVR among PWID is essential to ensure those reinfected are identified and retreated promptly. LAY SUMMARY: Increased rates of hepatitis C reinfection in Scotland were observed following the rapid scale-up of highly effective direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatments among people who inject drugs. This demonstrates that community-based treatment pathways are reaching high-risk groups, regarded vital in efforts to eliminate the virus. However, we estimate that less than half of reinfections have been detected in the DAA era because of inadequate levels of retesting beyond the first year following successful treatment. Sustained efforts that involve high coverage of harm reduction measures and high uptake of annual testing are required to ensure prompt diagnosis and treatment of those reinfected if the goals of elimination are to be met.

Performance of models to predict hepatocellular carcinoma risk among UK patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV infection.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models can inform clinical decisions about HCC screening provided their predictions are robust. We conducted an external validation of 6 HCC prediction models for UK patients with cirrhosis and a HCV virological cure. METHODS: Patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV were identified from the Scotland HCV clinical database (N = 2,139) and the STratified medicine to Optimise Treatment of Hepatitis C Virus (STOP-HCV) study (N = 606). We calculated patient values for 4 competing non-genetic HCC prediction models, plus 2 genetic models (for the STOP-HCV cohort only). Follow-up began at the date of sustained virological response (SVR) achievement. HCC diagnoses were identified through linkage to nation-wide cancer, hospitalisation, and mortality registries. We compared discrimination and calibration measures between prediction models. RESULTS: Mean follow-up was 3.4-3.9 years, with 118 (Scotland) and 40 (STOP-HCV) incident HCCs observed. The age-male sex-ALBI-platelet count score (aMAP) model showed the best discrimination; for example, the Concordance index (C-index) in the Scottish cohort was 0.77 (95% CI 0.73-0.81). However, for all models, discrimination varied by cohort (being better for the Scottish cohort) and by age (being better for younger patients). In addition, genetic models performed better in patients with HCV genotype 3. The observed 3-year HCC risk was 3.3% (95% CI 2.6-4.2) and 5.1% (3.5-7.0%) in the Scottish and STOP-HCV cohorts, respectively. These were most closely matched by aMAP, in which the mean predicted 3-year risk was 3.6% and 5.0% in the Scottish and STOP-HCV cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: aMAP was the best-performing model in terms of both discrimination and calibration and, therefore, should be used as a benchmark for rival models to surpass. This study underlines the opportunity for 'real-world' risk stratification in patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV. However, auxiliary research is needed to help translate an HCC risk prediction into an HCC-screening decision. LAY SUMMARY: Patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV are at high risk of developing liver cancer, although the risk varies substantially from one patient to the next. Risk calculator tools can alert clinicians to patients at high risk and thereby influence decision-making. In this study, we tested the performance of 6 risk calculators in more than 2,500 patients with cirrhosis and cured HCV. We show that some risk calculators are considerably better than others. Overall, we found that the 'aMAP' calculator worked the best, but more work is needed to convert predictions into clinical decisions.

Addition of hyaluronic acid to the FIB-4 liver fibrosis score improves prediction of incident cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma in type 2 diabetes: The Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is associated with increased risk of progression to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in people with chronic liver diseases, particularly non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). However, the absolute risk of progression is low. So, it is crucial to accurately identify patients who would benefit most from hepatology referral and intensified management. Current risk-stratification tools are suboptimal and perform worse in people with diabetes. AIMS: To determine whether the addition of complementary biomarker(s) to current NAFLD risk-stratification tools in people with T2D could improve the identification of people who are at increased risk of developing incident cirrhosis or HCC. METHODS: The Edinburgh Type 2 diabetes Study (ET2DS) is a cohort study of men and women with T2D (n = 1066, age 60-75 at baseline). Cases of cirrhosis and HCC were identified over 11 years of follow-up. Biomarkers were measured at baseline and year 1 and association with incident disease was assessed using logistic regression. RESULTS: Of existing risk-stratification scores tested, the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index and the AST:platelet ratio index (APRI) performed best in this cohort. Addition of hyaluronic acid (cut-point ≥ 50  µ  g/L) to FIB-4 (cut-point ≥ 1.3) maintained a false negative rate of ≤25% and reduced the number of people incorrectly identified as "high risk" for incident disease by ∼50%. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of hyaluronic acid to FIB-4 reduced the proportion of people inappropriately identified as "high risk" for development of cirrhosis/HCC in a community population of otherwise asymptomatic people with T2D. These findings require a validation in independent cohorts.